THE BLACK SWAN黑天鹅

作者
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
丛书名
出版社
Penguin
ISBN
9780141034591
简要
简介
内容简介 What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
目录
Prologue
PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY,OF HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic
Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan
Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute
Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days,or How Not to be a Sucker
Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy
Chapter 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope
Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:The Problem of Silent Evidence
Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy,or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT
Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction
Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop
Chapter 12 Epistemocracy,a Dream
Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter,of What Do You Do if you Cannot Predict
PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
Chapter 14 From Mediocristan,and Back
Chapter 15 The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud
Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness
Chapter 17 Locke's Mandmen,or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony
Chapter 19 Half and Half,or How to Get Even with the Black Swan
Epilogue:Yevgenia's White Swans
Acknowledgments
Glossary
Notes
Bibliography
Index



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